September 2015 Picks

Take a deep breath, close your eyes, and just feel the disappointment and anxious jitters wash over you. Repeat until they’ve become just a strange abstract feeling, like a new pair of shoes. Then let them go, relax, and remember the plan.

This was a rough month for the market, with the S&P 500 losing some 10% of its value at one point, before regaining a fraction of that. But these things happen — it’s been an unusually long time since the last “correction” of this scale. As is typical of Plan 5, it’s more volatile than the market as a whole, and just as it often exaggerates the market’s gains, it will sometimes amplify its losses. That’s what happened this time around. Here are the Plan 5 Monthly results for August:

Plan 5 Monthly: August 2015 Results

Aug 3 Open Aug 31 Close % Change
Amazon.com (AMZN) 537.45 512.89 -4.57%
Criteo SA (CRTO) 53.93 39.21 -27.29%
Netflix (NFLX) 114.60 115.03 +0.38%
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX) 258.00 230.58 -10.63%
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) 25.00 18.75 -25%
Plan 5 Monthly: August 2015 -13.42%
S&P 500 2104.49 1972.18 -6.29%

Plan 5 Monthly was hit particularly hard, seeing the biggest loss in a single month since its inception, 13.42%, versus the S&P 500’s 6.29% loss. Four out of five picks lost value, with the worst being Criteo and WisdomTree Investements, which each lost at least a quarter of their value. Only one pick, Netflix, saw a gain, and it was very small.

Still, there are only two substitutions this month, with Post Holdings and Xoom replacing those two biggest losers, Criteo and WisdomTree. Here are the September Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: September 2015 Picks

Company Symbol
Amazon.com AMZN
Netflix NFLX
Post Holdings POST
Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX
Xoom XOOM

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but let’s take a look at how last month’s new picks are doing. Here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: August 2015 Progress Report

Aug 3 Open Aug 31 Close % Change
Amazon.com (AMZN) 537.45 512.89 -4.57%
Netflix (NFLX) 114.60 115.03 +0.38%
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX) 258.00 230.58 -10.63%
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) 25.00 18.75 -25%
Xoom (XOOM) 24.82 24.83 +0.04%
Plan 5 Quarterly: August 2015 -7.96%
S&P 500 2104.49 1972.18 -6.29%

Because Xoom had a much better month than Criteo, Plan 5 Quarterly didn’t fall as far as Plan 5 Monthly. Its 7.96% loss is only moderately worse than the market’s 6.29% loss.

Lastly, here’s a look at Plan 5’s overall progress from the beginning:


I’ll be back at the end of September with another update.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

August 2015 Picks

Welcome to the August update of Plan 5 Picks. The market has seen its ups and downs over the past month, but Plan 5 has mostly good news for us this time around. Here’s how Plan 5 Monthly performed in July:

Plan 5 Monthly: July 2015 Results

Jul 1 Open Jul 31 Close % Change
II-VI (IIVI) 19.18 17.00 -11.37%
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) 41.98 40.15 -4.36%
Post Holdings (POST) 54.27 53.74 -0.98%
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX) 224.99 257.53 +14.46%
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) 22.40 24.90 +11.16%
Plan 5 Monthly: July 2015 +1.78%
S&P 500 2067 2103.84 +1.78%

Three of July’s five picks went down, with II-IV losing 11.37%. Fortunately this was more than offset by gains from WisdomTree Investments and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. At 1.78% growth for the month, Plan 5 Monthly exactly matched the performance of the S&P 500.

Three of August’s picks are new – each of July’s losers are being replaced. This is the debut appearance in Plan 5 for Amazon.com and Criteo, while Netflix is making a return to the list. Here’s the latest set of picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: August 2015 Picks

Company Symbol
Amazon.com AMZN
Criteo CRTO
Netflix NFLX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX
WisdomTree Investments WETF

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, it’s time to rebalance your portfolio. An easy way to do that is to use the online Balance Calculator. If you’re new to Plan 5 or would like to read more about rebalancing a Plan 5 portfolio, check out this comprehensive guide to the process.

If you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it will also be time to rebalance your portfolio this month. But first let’s take a look at how Plan 5 Quarterly has performed with its last set of picks over the past three months.

Plan 5 Quarterly: May 2015 – July 2015 Results

May 1 Open Jul 31 Close % Change
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) 34.04 40.15 +17.95%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 150.41 166.03 +10.38%
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX) 217.33 257.53 +18.5%
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) 18.83 24.90 +32.24%
XPO Logistics (XPO) 48.74 43.35 -11.06%
Plan 5 Quarterly: May – July 2015 +13.6%
S&P 500 2087.38 2103.84 +0.79%

Stellar results for this round of Plan 5 Quarterly. WisdomTree Investments led the pack with a gain of 32.24%, followed by several other strong performers. The only loss comes from XPO Logistics, at -11.06%. The total gain for Plan 5 Quarterly from May through July has been 13.6%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.79% growth.

Here’s the new set of Plan 5 Quarterly picks:

Plan 5 Quarterly: August 2015 Picks

Company Symbol
Amazon.com AMZN
Netflix NFLX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX
WisdomTree Investments WETF
Xoom XOOM

As with Plan 5 Monthly, there are three new picks for this period of Plan 5 Quarterly, with Valeant Pharmaceuticals and WisdomTree Investments staying on the list while Amazon.com, Netflix and money transfer provider Xoom take the remaining three spots.

Again, followers of Plan 5 Quarterly will want to rebalance your portfolios. The online Balance Calculator and the step-by-step guide are useful resources for helping with this.

Finally, here’s a look at overall Plan 5 performance so far, since its inception:



That’s all for this month. I’ll be back at the end of August with the latest picks.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier