August 2014 Picks

I won’t dwell on last month’s less than stellar results, and just lay out the facts. Here’s how Plan 5 Monthly performed in July:

Plan 5 Monthly: July 2014 Results

Jul 1 Open Jul 31 Close % Change
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 166.00 145.32 -12.46%
Corning (GLW) 22.06 19.65 -10.92%
Illumina (ILMN) 178.59 159.91 -10.46%
Under Armour (UA) 59.72 66.75 +11.77%
WhiteWave Foods Company (WWAV) 32.37 29.79 -7.97%
Plan 5 Monthly: July 2014 -6.01%
S&P 500 1962.29 1930.67 -1.61%

Four out five picks fell last month, leading to a loss of 6.01% for the full Plan 5 Monthly portfolio.

Tesla’s back! After being off the lists for a few months, Tesla Motors is back in this month’s Plan 5 Monthly and Quarterly picks. There are two substitutions this month, with Buffalo Wild Wings and Corning being replaced by Activision Blizzard and Tesla Motors. Here’s the latest set of picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: August 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Activision Blizzard ATVI
Illumina ILMN
Tesla Motors TSLA
Under Armour UA
WhiteWave Foods Company WWAV

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, it’s time to rebalance your portfolio. An easy way to do that is to use the online Balance Calculator. If you’re new to Plan 5 or would like to read more about rebalancing a Plan 5 portfolio, check out this comprehensive guide to the process.

If you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it will also be time to rebalance your portfolio this month. But first let’s take a look at how Plan 5 Quarterly has performed with its last set of picks over the past three months.

Plan 5 Quarterly: May 2014 – July 2014 Results

May 1 Open Jul 31 Close % Change
Corning (GLW) 20.91 19.65 -6.03%
Generac Holdings (GNRC) 55.19 43.40 -21.36%
Illumina (ILMN) 135.88 159.91 +17.68%
Mobile Mini (MINI) 44.33 37.76 -14.82%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 21.50 18.99 -11.67%
Plan 5 Quarterly: May – July 2014 -7.24%
S&P 500 1884.39 1930.67 +2.46%

More disappointing news for Plan 5 Quarterly. Again, four out of five picks dropped, this time leading to a portfolio loss of 7.24% over the course of the quarter.

Here’s the new set of Plan 5 Quarterly picks:

Plan 5 Quarterly: August 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Illumina ILMN
Nuance Communications NUAN
Tesla Motors TSLA
Under Armour UA
WhiteWave Foods WWAV

Only Illumina carries over from the previous quarter’s picks.

Again, followers of Plan 5 Quarterly will want to rebalance your portfolios. The online Balance Calculator and the step-by-step guide are useful resources for helping with this.

Finally, here’s a look at overall Plan 5 performance so far, since its inception:



After a strong start, results in the recent past don’t look too impressive. Let’s see what the future holds.

That’s all for this month. I’ll be back at the end of August with the latest picks. Until then…

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

July 2014 Picks

Welcome to the July update of Plan 5 Picks. Pretty good results this month, for both Plan 5 Monthly and Quarterly. We’ll start with the Plan 5 Monthly results for June:

Plan 5 Monthly: June 2014 Results

Jun 2 Open Jun 30 Close % Change
Corning (GLW) 21.29 21.95 +3.1%
Illumina (ILMN) 159.58 178.54 +11.88%
McKesson (MCK) 189.84 186.21 -1.91%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 19.03 20.17 +5.99%
WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 31.54 32.37 +2.63%
Plan 5 Monthly: June 2014 +4.34%
S&P 500 1923.87 1960.23 +1.89%

Illumina was once again the winner this month, growing by nearly 12%. All of the others except for McKesson gained by smaller amounts. The overall growth of 4.34% easily beat out the S&P 500’s 1.89% rise.

There are two substitutions this month, with McKesson and Sierra Wireless being replaced by Buffalo Wild Wings and Under Armor. Here are the July Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: July 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD
Corning GLW
Illumina ILMN
Under Armour UA
WhiteWave Foods WWAV

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here. Or, even easier, you can try out the new Balance Calculator tool that will do the math for you.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but let’s take a look at how the current picks are doing two months in. Here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: June 2014 Progress Report

May 1 Open Jun 30 Close % Change
Corning (GLW) 20.91 21.95 +4.97%
Generac Holdings (GNRC) 55.19 48.74 -11.69%
Illumina (ILMN) 135.88 178.54 +31.4%
Mobile Mini (MINI) 44.33 47.89 +8.03%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 21.50 20.17 -6.19%
Plan 5 Quarterly: May 2014 – Jun 2014 +5.31%
S&P 500 1884.39 1960.23 +4.02%

Plan 5 Monthly also gained more than the S&P 500 this month, though not as much more as Plan 5 Monthly.

Finally, here’s a look at Plan 5’s overall progress from the beginning:



We continue hanging on through both the ups and downs, not letting either one get us too excited – all the while keeping our eyes on the prize. I’ll be back at the end of July with the next update.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

June 2014 Picks

Welcome to the June update of Plan 5 Picks. This update brings another month of less than stellar results, so let’s brace ourselves and get started. Here are the Plan 5 Monthly results for May:

Plan 5 Monthly: May 2014 Results

May 1 Open May 30 Close % Change
Air Methods (AIRM) 55.82 48.20 -13.65%
CaesarStone Sdot-Yam (CSTE) 52.64 45.17 -14.19%
Illumina (ILMN) 135.88 158.25 +16.46%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 21.50 18.78 -12.65%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 207.08 207.77 +0.33%
Plan 5 Monthly: May 2014 -4.74%
S&P 500 1884.39 1923.57 +2.08%

Illumina had a strong showing, rising over 16%. However, that was more than balanced out with the deep dips by Air Methods, CaesarStone and Sierra Wireless.

There are three substitutions this month, with only Illumina and Sierra Wireless carrying over from last month. Here are the June Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: June 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Corning GLW
Illumina ILMN
McKesson MCK
Sierra Wireless SWIR
WhiteWave Foods WWAV

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here. Or, even easier, you can try out the new Balance Calculator tool that will do the math for you.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but let’s take a look at how the current picks are doing one month in. Here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: May 2014 Progress Report

May 1 Open May 30 Close % Change
Corning (GLW) 20.91 21.30 +1.87%
Generac Holdings (GNRC) 55.19 48.68 -11.8%
Illumina (ILMN) 135.88 158.25 +16.46%
Mobile Mini (MINI) 44.33 43.55 -1.76%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 21.50 18.78 -12.65%
Plan 5 Quarterly: May 2014 -1.58%
S&P 500 1884.39 1923.57 +2.08%

Plan 5 Monthly also lost some ground this month, though not as much.

Finally, here’s a look at Plan 5’s overall progress from the beginning:



It’s been a rough last few months, but again, the challenge is to hang in there for the long haul rather than getting too excited (or fearful) with every rise and dip. I’ll be back at the end of June with the next update.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

May 2014 Picks

It was yet another rough month for Plan 5, but we’re marching ahead with two new sets of picks. Let’s start with a look at how Plan 5 Monthly performed in April:

Plan 5 Monthly: April 2014 Results

Apr 1 Open Apr 30 Close % Change
CaesarStone Sdot-Yam (CSTE) 54.56 51.79 -5.08%
Illumina (ILMN) 150.67 134.18 -10.94%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 209.02 206.85 -1.04%
Under Armour (UA) 57.50 48.85 -15.04%
WhiteWave Foods Company (WWAV) 28.48 27.66 -2.88%
Plan 5 Monthly: April 2014 -7%
S&P 500 1882.22 1883.95 +0.09%

It was another disappointing performance in April, and another reminder to keep our sights on the long term. All five picks fell last month, with Under Armor leading with a loss of 15%.

With May’s new set of picks, we’ll be holding on to three companies and replacing two, Under Armor and WhiteWave Foods, with Air Methods and Sierra Wireless. Here’s the latest set of picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: May 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Air Methods AIRM
Caesarstone CSTE
Illumina ILMN
Sierra Wireless SWIR
Tesla Motors TSLA

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, it’s time to rebalance your portfolio. An easy way to do that is to use the online Balance Calculator. If you’re new to Plan 5 or would like to read more about rebalancing a Plan 5 portfolio, check out this comprehensive guide to the process.

If you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it will also be time to rebalance your portfolio this month. But first let’s take a look at how Plan 5 Quarterly has performed with its last set of picks over the past three months.

Plan 5 Quarterly: February 2014 – April 2014 Results

Feb 3 Open Apr 30 Close % Change
Cognex (CGNX) 39.40 34.11 -13.43%
Illumina (ILMN) 151.53 134.18 -11.45%
Netflix (NFLX) 411.90 317.43 -22.94%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 20.83 21.54 +3.41%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 182.89 206.85 +13.1%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Feb 2014 – Apr 2014 -6.26%
S&P 500 1741.89 1883.95 +8.16%

This is easily Plan 5 Quarterly’s worst quarter yet, but it’s worth pointing out how much worse it could have been if not for balance and diversification. Three of the quarter’s five picks dropped, and they each dropped by double digit percentages. But nonetheless, the modest gains of the remaining two managed to limit our losses to “only” 6.26%. Not great, but it could have been a lot worse.

Here’s the new set of Plan 5 Quarterly picks:

Plan 5 Quarterly: February 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Corning GLW
Generac Holdings GNRC
Illumina ILMN
Mobile Mini MINI
Sierra Wireless SWIR

There are a lot of changes this time around, with mainstays Netflix and Tesla being given the boot. In all there are three substitution; only Illumina and Sierra Wireless are staying with us from last quarter.

Again, followers of Plan 5 Quarterly will want to rebalance your portfolios. The online Balance Calculator and the step-by-step guide are useful resources for helping with this.

Finally, here’s a look at overall Plan 5 performance so far, since its inception:



There have been definite ups and downs, and right now we’re certainly in a “down”. But on the plus side, Plan 5 continues to decisively outperform the S&P 500. Now the trick is to keep our attention on our long term goals, rather than the bumpy bits of road on the way there.

That’s all for this month. I’ll be back at the end of May with the latest picks. Until then…

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

April 2014 Picks

Welcome to the April update of Plan 5 Picks. After last month’s heights, we can count on this month’s results to bring us back to Earth. Let’s get started with the Plan 5 Monthly results for March:

Plan 5 Monthly: March 2014 Results

Mar 3 Open Mar 28 Close % Change
CaesarStone (CSTE) 58.49 54.95 -6.05%
Illumina (ILMN) 171.49 142.02 -17.18%
Netflix (NFLX) 441.19 358.87 -18.66%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 237.26 212.37 -10.49%
Under Armour (UA) 111.35 115.22 +3.48%
Plan 5 Monthly: March 2014 -9.78%
S&P 500 1857.68 1857.62 -0%

Four out of five of our picks went down this month, while the S&P 500 barely budged. Here’s our challenge: rather than panicking, simply wait it out, let it pass. While it’s a lot of fun to see big gains when it comes time to rebalance our portfolio, what’s important is the results we see over years, not months.

There is only one substitution in this month’s new set of picks, with Netflix being replaced by WhiteWave Foods. Here are the April Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: April 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
CaesarStone CSTE
Illumina ILMN
Tesla Motors TSLA
Under Armour UA
WhiteWave Foods WWAV

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here. Or, even easier, you can try out the new Balance Calculator tool that will do the math for you.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but at two months in, let’s take a look at how the current picks are doing. Here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: March 2014 Progress Report

Feb 3 Open Mar 28 Close % Change
Cognex (CGNX) 39.40 33.02 -16.19%
Illumina (ILMN) 151.53 142.02 -6.28%
Netflix (NFLX) 411.90 358.87 -12.87%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 20.83 21.43 +2.88%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 182.89 212.37 +16.12%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Feb 2014 – Mar 2014 -3.27%
S&P 500 1782.68 1857.62 +4.2%

Plan 5 Monthly also lost some ground this month. We’ll see what shape it’s in when it comes time to rebalance, at the end of April.

Finally, here’s a look at Plan 5’s overall progress from the beginning:



After reaching an all-time high last month, both versions of Plan 5 are down significantly this month. My goal is to just relax, and ride the bronco through both the ups and downs. I’ll be back at the end of April with the next update.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

March 2014 Picks

Welcome to the March update of Plan 5 Picks. It’s been a month of smooth sailing for the market as a whole, and in particular for Plan 5. Here are the Plan 5 Monthly results for February:

Plan 5 Monthly: February 2014 Results

Feb 3 Open Feb 28 Close % Change
3D Systems (DDD) 77.65 75.96 -2.18%
CaesarStone (CSTE) 45.48 59.12 +29.99%
Cognex (CGNX) 39.40 37.66 -4.42%
Illumina (ILMN) 151.53 171.49 +13.17%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 182.89 244.81 +33.86%
Plan 5 Monthly: February 2014 +14.09%
S&P 500 1782.68 1859.45 +4.31%

Tesla and CaesarStone in particular both saw fantastic growth this month, helping lift Plan 5 Monthly 14.09% versus the S&P 500’s already strong 4.31% gain.

There are two substitutions in this month’s new set of picks, with Netflix and Under Armor replacing last month’s poorest performers, 3D Systems and Cognex. Here are the March Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: March 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
CaesarStone CSTE
Illumina ILMN
Netflix NFLX
Tesla Motors TSLA
Under Armour UA

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but let’s take a look at how last month’s new picks are doing. Here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: February 2014 Progress Report

Feb 3 Open Feb 28 Close % Change
Cognex (CGNX) 39.40 37.66 -4.42%
Illumina (ILMN) 151.53 171.49 +13.17%
Netflix (NFLX) 411.90 445.63 +8.19%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 20.83 20.46 -1.78%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 182.89 244.81 +33.86%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Feb 2014 – Feb 2014 +9.81%
S&P 500 1782.68 1859.45 +4.31%

There’s still a ways to go before this Plan 5 Quarterly period is done, but it’s making good progress so far, gaining more than twice the ground of the S&P 500.

Lastly, here’s a look at Plan 5’s overall progress from the beginning:



Both versions of Plan 5 have crossed the 50% gain mark this month! Not a bad start. I’ll be back at the end of March (Spring, at last!) with another update.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

February 2014 Picks

It’s another big month for Plan 5, with lots to recap and two new sets of picks. Let’s begin by looking back at how Plan 5 Monthly has performed since last time:

Plan 5 Monthly: January 2014 Results

Jan 2 Open Jan 31 Close % Change
3D Systems (DDD) 93.31 78.07 -16.33%
Illumina (ILMN) 110.48 151.47 +37.10%
Netflix (NFLX) 366.81 409.25 +11.57%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 24.82 20.37 -17.93%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 149.80 181.99 +21.49%
Plan 5 Monthly: January 2014 +7.18%
S&P 500 1845.86 1782.59 -3.43%

A lot of movement with this set of picks — they all either gained or lost percentages in the double digits. 3D Systems and Sierra Wireless lost quite a bit, but this was more than balanced out by the strong performance of the other three picks, most notably Illumina’s 37% gain. Overall a very active set of picks, shaking out to a total 7.18% gain.

Two substitutions in this month’s set of picks, with Cognex and Caesarstone taking the place of Netflix and Sierra Wireless. Here’s the latest set of Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: February 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
3D Systems DDD
Caesarstone CSTE
Cognex CGNX
Illumina ILMN
Tesla Motors TSLA

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, it’s time to rebalance your portfolio. If you’re new to Plan 5 or would like a quick refresher on how to do this, you can take a look at this new page I put together that will step you through the process.

If you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it will also be time to rebalance your portfolio this month. But first let’s take a look at how Plan 5 Quarterly has performed with its last set of picks over the past three months.

Plan 5 Quarterly: November 2013 – January 2014 Results

Nov 1 Open Jan 31 Close % Change
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 143.28 142.10 -0.82%
Caesarstone (CSTE) 42.31 45.39 +7.28%
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 34.15 33.78 -1.08%
Illumina (ILMN) 93.48 151.47 +62.03%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 163.00 181.99 +11.65%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Nov 2013 – Jan 2014 +15.81%
S&P 500 1758.70 1782.59 +1.36%

Excellent results over this past quarter, with a return of 15.81% versus the S&P 500’s 1.36%!

Now here’s the new set of Plan 5 Quarterly picks:

Plan 5 Quarterly: February 2014 Picks

Company Symbol
Cognex CGNX
Illumina ILMN
Netflix NFLX
Sierra Wireless SWIR
Tesla Motors TSLA

This quarter’s picks see three substitutions, with Buffalo Wild Wings, Caesarstone and Dreamworks Animation being replaced by newcomers Cognex, Netflix and Sierra Wireless.

Again, it’s time for you followers of Plan 5 Quarterly to rebalance your portfolios, and a step-by-step guide for doing this can be found here.

Finally, let’s step back and take a look at Plan 5’s overall progress so far, with a little help from this nifty chart:



As you can see, Plan 5 has had a very successful first six months. Plan 5 Monthly has risen a total of 33.88% since it began back on August 1st, only to be outdone by Plan 5 Quarterly’s 36.93% hike. Both versions of Plan 5 unequivocally trounced the S&P 500, which gained only 4.44% over the same period. What a start!

It’s valuable to be able to look back and see how we’re doing, so I’m planning to publish an updated version of this chart with each month’s picks. Positive results like these can incite feelings of elation and the motivation to charge ahead. But it’s also important not to get swept up in the emotions of the moment — not every month’s results will look as good as these, but it pays to stick with the plan over the long haul rather than changing course at the first sign of a downturn. Looking at this chart, we see that at the end of November we’d just gone through two months of losses in a row, for both Plan 5 Monthly and Plan 5 Quarterly. That’s down more than six percent in the same two months that the S&P was rising steadily… a certain recipe for doubts and second thoughts. But then we see how it paid off to refuse to be driven by those doubts, and to stick with Plan 5 through to today.

That’s all for this month. I’ll be back at the end of February with the latest picks. Until then…

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

January 2014 Picks

Welcome to the first Plan 5 update of the new year. So far we’re heading in a positive direction! Let’s dig right in. Here are the Plan 5 Monthly results for December:

Plan 5 Monthly: December 2013 Results

Dec 2 Open Dec 31 Close % Change
Caesarstone (CSTE) 49.15 49.67 +1.06%
3D Systems (DDD) 76.10 92.93 +22.12%
Illumina (ILMN) 97.87 110.59 +13.00%
Netflix (NFLX) 364.88 368.17 +0.90%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 126.35 150.43 +19.06%
Plan 5 Monthly: December 2013 +11.23%
S&P 500 1806.55 1848.36 +2.31%

Tesla has been making up some of its losses, and that has helped contribute to a strong rebound for Plan 5 Monthly in December, rising 11.23% in comparison with the S&P 500’s 2.31%.

Only one substitution this month, with the new set of picks replacing Ceasarstone with Sierra Wireless. Here are the January Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: January 2013 Picks

Company Symbol
3D Systems DDD
Illumina ILMN
Netflix NFLX
Sierra Wireless SWIR
Tesla Motors TSLA

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, you’ll want to rebalance your portfolio at this point. You can find a refresher on how to do that right here.

If instead you’re following Plan 5 Quarterly, it’s not time to make any trades this month, but let’s take a look at how we’re doing two-thirds of the way through the current period. The results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: December 2013 Progress Report

Nov 1 Open Dec 31 Close % Change
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 143.28 147.20 +2.74%
Caesarstone (CSTE) 42.31 49.67 +17.40%
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 34.15 35.50 +3.95%
Illumina (ILMN) 93.48 110.59 +18.30%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 163.00 150.43 -7.71%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Nov 2013 – Dec 2013 +6.94%
S&P 500 1758.70 1848.36 +5.10%

Plan 5 Quarterly has made a turn for the better over the past month, and is now beating the S&P 500 over the same period. We’ll let it cook another month and then rebalance the Plan 5 Quarterly portfolio with a new set of picks at the end of January.

With the beginning of Plan 5’s first new year I wish us all increased success in every aspect of our lives. It’s a short and crazy life full of opportunity, so together let’s learn, love, create, and thrive!

Mike Ferrier

December 2013 Picks

Welcome to the December update. We begin with the Plan 5 Monthly results:

Plan 5 Monthly: November 2013 Results

Nov 1 Open Nov 29 Close % Change
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 143.28 150.24 +4.86%
Caesarstone (CSTE) 42.31 49.15 +16.17%
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 34.15 31.86 -6.71%
Netflix (NFLX) 328.83 365.80 +11.24%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 163.00 127.28 -21.91%
Plan 5 Monthly: September 2013 +0.68%
S&P 500 1758.70 1805.81 +2.68%

A small gain for Plan 5 Monthly this time around, not enough to match the S&P 500’s gain in the same period. Three successful picks were dragged down largely by Tesla’s continued plunge. I’ll get back to that in a moment, but first here are December’s picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: December 2013 Picks

Company Symbol
Caesarstone CSTE
3D Systems DDD
Illumina ILMN
Netflix NFLX
Tesla Motors TSLA

If you’re following along with Plan 5 Monthly, it’s time to update your portfolio. You can find a review of how to rebalance your portfolio with the new set of picks here.

Now let’s take a look at how Plan 5 Quarterly is doing. We’re only one month into the current period, but here are the results so far:

Plan 5 Quarterly: November 2013 Progress Report

Nov 1 Open Nov 29 Close % Change
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 143.28 150.24 +4.86%
Caesarstone (CSTE) 42.31 49.15 +16.17%
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 34.15 31.86 -6.71%
Illumina (ILMN) 93.48 98.00 +4.84%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 163.00 127.28 -21.91%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Nov 2013 – Nov 2013 -2.75%
S&P 500 1758.70 1805.81 +2.68%

Plan 5 Quarterly is in the hole so far, and again the blame falls mostly on Tesla. And yet, you may have noticed that Tesla is again included in this month’s Plan 5 Monthly picks. Why would I keep sticking with what is clearly a slowly deflating bubble? Because that isn’t clear at all. In late 2011, for example, Netflix looked like the same kind of fading fad, but now it’s rocketed higher than ever. The challenge, as usual, is to stick with the plan rather than letting our emotions drive rash reactions. The algorithm continues to stick with Tesla, for now. I’ve tried variations that attempt to filter out “bubbles”, and backtesting shows that in the long term performance is a lot worse — it leaves behind those that never recover, but also those that stall a bit before continuing to rise spectacularly. So what I’m going to do is stick with the plan — and for now that means sticking with Tesla.

See you back here in a month. Until then —

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier

November 2013 Picks

Lots to do this month — it’s time to update both the Plan 5 Monthly and the Plan 5 Quarterly portfolios. We’ll begin with the Plan 5 Monthly results:

Plan 5 Monthly: October 2013 Results

Oct 1 Open Oct 31 Close % Change
Caesarstone (CSTE) 45.51 42.17 -7.34%
LinkedIn (LNKD) 247.71 223.67 -9.70%
Netflix (NFLX) 314.77 322.48 +2.45%
Sierra Wireless (SWIR) 16.52 18.06 +9.32%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 193.96 159.94 -17.54%
Plan 5 Monthly: September 2013 -4.56%
S&P 500 1682.41 1756.55 +4.41%

This month saw the first down period for Plan 5 Monthly. Several of the picks lost value, including a major slide for Tesla Motors. But here’s the challenge: don’t sweat it. (I say that at this point mostly for my own benefit, since I don’t expect many people are following along with Plan 5 just yet!) Stick to the plan — it’s expected to have downs as well as ups (as I said back in August, backtesting leads me to expect Plan 5 Monthly to lose value in one out of three months). By its nature, Plan 5 will have a good deal of volatility. All that’s important is that it beats the market in the long term, and so far it has been.

Moving forward, here is the November list of Plan 5 Monthly picks:

Plan 5 Monthly: November 2013 Picks

Company Symbol
Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD
Caesarstone CSTE
Dreamworks Animation DWA
Netflix NFLX
Tesla Motors TSLA

Next up is our first round of results for Plan 5 Quarterly:

Plan 5 Quarterly: August 2013 – October 2013 Results

Aug 1 Open Oct 31 Close % Change
Caesarstone (CSTE) 32.97 42.17 +27.90%
LinkedIn (LNKD) 206.99 223.67 +8.06%
Netflix (NFLX) 246.54 322.48 +30.80%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 135.00 159.94 +18.47%
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) 13.12 13.90 +5.95%
Plan 5 Quarterly: Aug 2013 – Oct 2013 +18.24%
S&P 500 1689.42 1756.55 +3.97%

Plan 5 Quarterly also lost a bit in the past month, but that was more than made up for by its steep gains over the previous two months. Overall it beat the market handily, showing an 18.24% gain against the S&P 500’s 3.97% gain.

Here is the latest batch of Plan 5 Quarterly picks:

Plan 5 Quarterly: November 2013 Picks

Company Symbol
Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD
Caesarstone CSTE
Dreamworks Animation DWA
Illumina ILMN
Tesla Motors TSLA

Lots of changes this time around. You might notice that the new Plan 5 Monthly picks hold on to NetFlix, while Plan 5 Quarterly replaces it with Illumina. It will be interesting to see how the two compare in performance.

If you’re following along with either Plan 5 Monthly or Quarterly, it’s time to make some trades. You can find a review of how to rebalance your portfolio with the new set of picks right here.

And that covers it for this month. I’ll be back at the end of November with a progress report, and the latest Plan 5 Monthly picks.

Thrive!

Mike Ferrier